Investor relations

Financial sensitivities

Sensitivities and capacities

Our shares are influenced by various events around world

Sensitivity assumptions

The sensitivities are based on Yara's capacities as stated in the capacity table below, assuming a 95% utilization. Sensitivities assume stable value-added margins and no inter-correlation between factors. EPS sensitivities are based on 273.2 million shares and assume 25% marginal tax rate on underlying business.

CAN sensitivities include fertilizer nitrate capacity and NPK capacity converted into CAN equivalents.

The currency sensitivities assume that revenues and raw material costs are USD-driven while fixed costs are exposed to local currencies at the locations where we operate. The currency sensitivities are based on the financial year 2017.

The European hub gas sensitivity is based on our gas consumption in Europe linked to hub pricing.

Last updated 8 February 2018

  Operating income EBITDA EPS
  USD million USD million USD
Urea sensitivity +10 USD/t   45 54 0.16
 …of which pure Urea  38 47 0.14
 …of which UAN  7 7 0.02
Nitrate sensitivity CAN +10 USD/t   101 101 0.28
 …of which pure Nitrates  61 61 0.17
 …of which NPKs 40 40 0.11
Compound NPK premium over nitrate 54 54 0.15
Hub gas Europe + 0.1 USD/MMBtu  -16 -16 -0.04
Hub gas North Am + 0.1 USD/MMBtu  -2.6 -2.6 -0.01
Ammonia + 10 USD/t  3 4 0.01
Currency sensitivities      

10%-points
EUR appreciation versus USD

-120 -95 -0.30
10%-points
NOK appreciation versus USD
-50 -35 -0.10
10%-points
BRL appreciation versus USD
-40 -25 -0.10

 

How to use the sensitivities

The sensitivities are based on Yara's capacity and a utilization of 95%. If sales differ from this assumption, the estimated effects using the sensitivities can be misleading. This is especially relevant when using the sensitivities on quarters when sales volumes, for various reasons, could differ from both actual production and the stated capacity.

Sensitivities do not include our phosphate upgrading activities. We upgrade phosphate rock into NPK, which depending on the price development of both DAP as the finished product and phosphate rock and ammonia as the key raw materials, can generate significant value. This upgrading activity is not included in any of the sensitivities but can be estimated by looking at upgrading margins in the phosphate value chain.

There is an average time lag of approximately one month before changes in spot gas prices affect our bottom line.

Global Production Capacity

Last updated: Jan. 2018

Annual production capacity1
    Ammonia Nitric Acid Phos. Acid2 Phos. Rock SSP Urea Nitrates NPK CN3  UAN
Sluiskil Netherlands 1.9 1.5       1.3 1.9     0.7
Brunsbuttel Germany 0.8         0.8        
Porsgrunn Norway 0.5 1.5           2.2 0.9  
Ferrara Italy 0.6         0.6        
Le Havre France 0.4         0.3        
Yara Trinidad Trinidad 0.2                  
Yara Tringen (49%) Trinidad 0.4                  
Tertre Belgium 0.4 0.7         1.0      
Hull UK 0.3                  
Uusikaupunki Finland   0.5         0.2 1.2    
Siilinjärvi Finland   0.2 0.3 1.0       0.5    
Belle Plaine Canada 0.7 0.1       1.1       0.3
Cartagena Colombia 0.1 0.2           0.3 0.1  
Galvani (60%) Brazil       0.3 0.6          
Qafco (25%) Qatar 1.0         1.5        
Lifeco (50%) Libya 0.2         0.2        
Pilbara Australia 0.9                  
Glomfjord Norway   0.4           0.6 0.2  
Montoir France   0.3         0.4 0.3    
Ambes France   0.5         0.6      
Rostock Germany   1.1         1.6     0.3
Ravenna Italy   0.4         0.4 0.4    
Rio Grande Brazil         0.4     0.4    
Ponta Grossa Brazil         0.1     0.1    
Koping Sweden   0.3         0.3      
Pardies France   0.2         0.1      
Total Yara   8.4 7.8 0.3 1.3 1.1 5.7 6.5 6.0 1.2 1.2

1) Including Yara's share of joint venture plants (precentage shown where applicable)

2) 100% P2O5

3) Dry equivalents