Sensitivities and capacities

Our results are influenced by both internal and external factors. Here are Yara's most significant external price and currency sensitivities.

Sensitivity assumptions

The sensitivities are based on Yara's capacities as stated in the capacity table below, assuming a 95% utilization. Sensitivities assume stable value-added margins and no inter-correlation between factors. EPS sensitivities are based on 254.7 million shares and assume 25% marginal tax rate on underlying business.

CAN sensitivities include fertilizer nitrate capacity and NPK capacity converted into CAN equivalents.

The currency sensitivities assume that revenues and raw material costs are USD-driven while fixed costs are exposed to local currencies at the locations where we operate. 

The European and North American hub gas sensitivities are based on our gas consumption in Europe and North America linked to hub pricing.

Last updated 8 February 2022

  Operating income EBITDA EPS
  USD million USD million USD
Urea sensitivity +10 USD/t   44 44 0.13
 …of which pure Urea  38 38 0.11
 …of which UAN  6 6 0.02
Nitrate sensitivity CAN +10 USD/t   103 103 0.30
 …of which pure Nitrates  65 65 0.19
 …of which NPKs 38 38 0.11
Hub gas Europe + 0.1 USD/MMBtu  -16 -16 -0.05
Hub gas North Am + 0.1 USD/MMBtu  -4.0 -4.0 -0.01
Ammonia + 10 USD/t  8 8 0.02
Currency sensitivities      

10%-points
EUR appreciation versus USD

-125 -90 -0.38
10%-points
NOK appreciation versus USD
-50 -40 -0.15
10%-points
BRL appreciation versus USD
-50 -40 -0.15

 

How to use the sensitivities

The sensitivities are based on Yara's capacity and a utilization of 95%. If sales differ from this assumption, the estimated effects using the sensitivities can be misleading. This is especially relevant when using the sensitivities on quarters when sales volumes, for various reasons, could differ from both actual production and the stated capacity. A number of other factors such as developments in sales volumes, realized prices or margins may lead to deviations between the effect estimated by using the sensitivities and actual financial results. Yara does not provide guidance on total financial results.

Sensitivities do not include the NPK premium. Yara's compound NPKs are typically sold at a premium above commodity blend values. However, estimating the short-term financial impact from the NPK premium can be misleading, especially for individual quarters. There are also limited market reference prices for compound NPKs available.

Sensitivities also do not include our phosphate upgrading activities. We upgrade phosphate rock into NPK, which depending on the price development of both DAP as the finished product and phosphate rock and ammonia as the key raw materials, can generate significant value. This upgrading activity is not included in any of the sensitivities but can be estimated by looking at upgrading margins in the phosphate value chain.

There is an average time lag of approximately one to two months before changes in spot gas prices affect our margins. Time lags for other prices can vary between products, geographies and through the season.

 

Global Production Capacity

Updated: 8 February 2022 (per December 2021)